TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAGES IN CHINA UNDER GLOBAL WARMING   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张娇艳  吴立广  张强 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2013,19(2):120-129

Over the past 25 years, an annual average of 6 to 7 tropical cyclones (TCs) made landfall on China mainland and Hainan Island with an average intensity of 29.9 m/s at landfall and maintained at least tropical storm intensity for 15.6 hours over land, leading to 505 deaths and 37 billion yuan in direct economic loss, which accounted for 0.4% of the annual GDP of China. Although there was little change in the overall landfall frequency, intensity at landfall and overland duration, the annual total direct economic loss increased significantly due to the rapid economic development over the past 25 years. Under global warming, the intensity of TCs that made landfall on Hainan decreased but the overland duration and frequency of TCs that made landfall on Fujian and Zhejiang increased. At the national and provincial levels, the ratio of the direct economic loss to GDP and casualties caused by landfall tropical cyclones decreased, suggesting the effectiveness of disaster prevention and reduction in China.  相似文献   

Copula-based risk evaluation of droughts across the Pearl River basin, China   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

Qiang Zhang  Mingzhong Xiao  Vijay P. Singh  Xiaohong Chen 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,111(1-2):119-131

Daily precipitation data for the period of 1960–2005 from 42 precipitation gauging stations in the Pearl River basin were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall trend test and copula functions. The standardized precipitation index method was used to define drought episodes. Primary and secondary return periods were also analyzed to evaluate drought risks in the Pearl River basin as a whole. Results indicated that: (1) in general, the drought tendency was not significant at a 95 % confidence level. However, significant drought trends could be found in November, December, and January and significant wetting trends in June and July. The drought severity and drought durations were not significant at most of the precipitation stations across the Pearl River basin; (2) in terms of drought risk, higher drought risk could be observed in the lower Pearl River basin and lower drought risk in the upper Pearl River basin. Higher risk of droughts of longer durations was always corresponding to the higher risk of droughts with higher drought severity, which poses an increasing challenge for drought management and water resources management. When drought episodes with higher drought severity occurred in the Pearl River basin, the regions covered by higher risk of drought events were larger, which may challenge the water supply in the lower Pearl River basin. As for secondary return periods, results of this study indicated that secondary return periods might provide a more robust evaluation of drought risk. This study should be of merit for water resources management in the Pearl River basin, particularly the lower Pearl River basin, and can also act as a case study for determining regional response to drought changes as a result of global climate changes.  相似文献   

江西省“三农”服务专项建设现状与思考   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

杨爱萍  林秋  蔡哲  刘文英  姚俊萌  郭瑞鸽 《气象与减灾研究》2015,38(2):59-63

通过对江西省24个"三农"服务专项建设实施地的"两个体系"建设情况开展实地调查,分析了江西省"三农"服务专项建设在提高气象为农服务现代化、促进气象工作政府化、惠民利民等三方面取得的成效,总结了各地的建设内容、成功经验、工作亮点和特色,梳理了存在的问题,并结合建设现状和有关要求,对今后江西省"三农"服务专项建设提出了六个方面的具体建议。  相似文献   

2018年湖南省农村自然灾害社会脆弱性测度          下载免费PDF全文

陈少华  张丽  左洪振  王满  姚爽 《气象与减灾研究》2020,43(4):299-306

农村社会发展状况与自然灾害发生频率和强度息息相关,提高农村自然灾害社会脆弱性对农村社会发展及实现乡村振兴战略具有重要作用。以湖南省各地级市州农村为研究对象,从敏感性和恢复力两个维度建立社会脆弱性指标评价体系,采用熵值法、模糊综合评价法和函数法测算敏感性、恢复力和脆弱性指数,分析2018年湖南省农村自然灾害社会脆弱性。结果表明,湖南省农村社会脆弱性空间分异特征明显,呈现“东低西高”的分布格局;多数地区的农村社会脆弱性处于低位水平,地区分异显著,具有两极分化分布特点,张家界地区最高,长沙和衡阳地区最低。在中低社会脆弱性的农村,恢复力指数对社会脆弱性贡献最大,其中最为显著的便是社会公共事业的建设水平和基础设施的完善水平。在高社会脆弱性的农村,敏感性指数对社会脆弱性贡献度最大。  相似文献   

Tidal Evolution of the Kepler Candidate Two-planet Systems     

DONG Yao  JI Jiang-hui 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2014

The tidal evolution of ten Kepler candidate two-planet systems is investigated by using the general secular perturbation theory, and then a general picture of tidal evolution for these systems is described. Taking the KOI 1239 system as an example, the tidal effect of the system is studied in detail, the results indicate that the dissipative term of the tidal effect causes the attenuation of planets’ orbital eccentricities, and it plays a dominant role in the process of orbital evolution, however, the conservative term of the tidal effect and the relativistic effect may damp the excitation of the eccentricity of the inner planet under the secular perturbation of the outer planet. In addition, the process of tidal evolution is also affected by both the initial eccentricity of the outer planet and the planet's tidal dissipation coeffcient. At the same time, the numerical simulation on the tidal evolution of the KOI 1239 system is also made, and the numerical results are consistent with those of general secular perturbation theory.  相似文献   

Records of the Moon‐forming impact and the 470 Ma disruption of the L chondrite parent body in the asteroid belt from U‐Pb apatite ages of Novato (L6)     

Qing‐Zhu Yin  Qin Zhou  Qiu‐Li Li  Xian‐Hua Li  Yu Liu  Guo‐Qiang Tang  Alexander N. Krot  Peter Jenniskens 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2014,49(8):1426-1439

Novato, a newly observed fall in the San Francisco Bay area, is a shocked and brecciated L6 ordinary chondrite containing dark and light lithologies. We have investigated the U‐Pb isotope systematics of coarse Cl‐apatite grains of metamorphic origin in Novato with a large geometry ion microprobe. The U‐Pb systematics of Novato apatite reveals an upper intercept age of 4472 ± 31 Ma and lower intercept age of 473 ± 38 Ma. The upper intercept age is within error identical to the U‐Pb apatite age of 4452 ± 21 Ma measured in the Chelyabinsk LL5 chondrite. This age is interpreted to reflect a massive collisional resetting event due to a large impact associated with the peak arrival time at the primordial asteroid belt of ejecta debris from the Moon‐forming giant impact on Earth. The lower intercept age is consistent with the most precisely dated Ar‐Ar ages of 470 ± 6 Ma of shocked L chondrites, and the fossil meteorites and extraterrestrial chromite relicts found in Ordovician limestones with an age of 467.3 ± 1.6 Ma in Sweden and China. The lower intercept age reflects a major disturbance related to the catastrophic disruption of the L chondrite parent body most likely associated with the Gefion asteroid family, which produced an initially intense meteorite bombardment of the Earth in Ordovician period and reset and degassed at least approximately 35% of the L chondrite falls today. We predict that the 470 Ma impact event is likely to be found on the Moon and Mars, if not Mercury.  相似文献   

基于反射机制的MVC业务模块简化方案   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李志英  黄强  楼新远 《成都信息工程学院学报》2006,21(5):675-678

简要介绍了MVC设计模式，对开发框架FrameServer的MVC实现过程进行丁研究，结合实例讨论了如何利用反射机制开发MVC业务模块，最后阐述了反射机制的优缺点。  相似文献   

Inhomogeneity in Spectral Transmission of the Coated UB VRI Filters of BFOSC and its Influence on Photometry     

Bao-An Yao  Liu Huang Shanghai Astronomical Observatory  Chinese Academy of Sciences  Shanghai National Astronomical Observatories  Chinese Academy of Sciences  Beijing 《中国天文和天体物理学报》2002,2(6)

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A new red variable star in the globularcluster M4     

Yao Bao-an  Sheng Chang-jung  Zhang Chun-sheng  Lin Qing 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2004,28(4):399-403

G302 = L3107 is a red star located at the lowest end of the red giant branch of the globular cluster M4. According to its location on the C-M diagram, G302 may be a cluster member. No proper motion or radial velocity determinations are available up to date.

We discovered that C302 is a new variable star with a main period of 1.24719 day and a peak to peak amplitude of about 0.3 mag in V. It may have a second period of 2.38249 day with an amplitude of about 0.05 mag. If it is a cluster member, then there will be interesting implications for the the theory of stellar evolution.  相似文献   

Topographic zonation of infiltration in the hilly loess region,north china     

Gang Li  Shiu Hung Luk  Qiang Guo Cai 《水文研究》1995,9(2):227-235

Field infiltration tests using portable rainfall infiltrometers were conducted in the Wangjiagou experimental basin in the hilly loess region of north China. Based on data collected at 27 sites, a topographic zonation of infiltration characteristics was observed. The average steady infiltration rate and the average ponding time decreased from the hilltop to the hillslope and further decreased to the gully wall. Such a zonation is closely related to the variations of topography, soil and land use conditions in the study area. A general infiltration model is proposed. Collected field data are used to establish the applicability of the proposed model in the study area.  相似文献